Express Entry enters 2026 under a stabilization model that prioritizes precision over volume, with Canada's Immigration Levels Plan holding permanent resident admissions steady at 380,000 annually through 2028. Federal High Skilled admissions through Express Entry are targeted at 109,000 ITAs for 2026, increasing to 111,000 in both 2027 and 2028. Understanding the latest CRS score trends, category-based draw patterns, and strategic changes will be critical for candidates aiming to secure an Invitation to Apply (ITA) in the coming year.
2026 Immigration Levels Plan: What to Expect
Canada's 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan represents a shift from record growth to sustainable immigration levels, balancing economic needs with housing and infrastructure capacity. The Economic Class will account for 64% of all permanent resident admissions in 2027 and 2028, up from previous years. Express Entry targets include the Federal Skilled Worker Program, Federal Skilled Trades Program, and Canadian Experience Class, with allocation ranges of 85,000-122,000 providing flexibility based on labour market data and regional priorities.
Additional spaces will be added to both the Federal Skilled Worker Program and Provincial Nominee Program to address national and regional labor needs. Category-based draws targeting specific occupations will continue as a core strategy throughout 2026.
December 2025 CRS Score Trends: The Current Landscape
Express Entry pool composition has undergone dramatic transformation heading into 2026. Between October and late November 2025, high-scoring candidates in the 601-1,200 point range more than doubled from 306 to 696 profiles, representing a staggering 127% increase in just six weeks. The 501-600 score bracket expanded by 417 new candidates, a 34% growth that intensified competition in an already competitive tier.
From August to November 2025, the total Express Entry pool grew by 8.6%, with the most significant concentration of candidates sitting in the 431-440 score range (16,354 profiles representing 6.52% of the pool). This shift toward higher scores reflects increased provincial nominations, improved language test results, and strategic profile optimization by candidates worldwide.
Category-Based Draw Predictions for 2026
IRCC has relied heavily on category-based selection throughout 2025, and this approach will intensify in 2026. Category-based selection, introduced in 2023, allows Express Entry to target candidates with specific in-demand skills or language abilities to fill labour market gaps.
French Language Proficiency
French draws produced the strongest momentum in late 2025 and remain the most likely high-volume category for early 2026.
Predicted ITAs: 4,000-7,000 per draw
Predicted CRS Range: 395-420
French language draws consistently issue the largest invitation volumes and feature the lowest CRS cutoffs of any category. Following larger rounds exceeding 5,000 invitations, cutoffs below 410 become plausible. The most recent French draw in late 2025 dropped to a CRS of 408 due to its large size.
Canadian Experience Class (CEC)
CEC continues to operate in a highly predictable pattern with minimal variation.
Predicted ITAs: 1,000-2,000 per draw
Predicted CRS Range: 527-538
CRS scores have remained remarkably stable in the 530-534 range throughout fall 2025, moving only slightly despite consecutive CEC selections. The lower ITA number reflects the most common trend, while the higher range covers possible increases similar to earlier 2025 months. CRS may remain between 528-540 unless invitation counts rise substantially.
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
PNP draw sizes have increased recently with expanded provincial nomination allocations.
Predicted ITAs: 500-800 per draw
Predicted CRS Range: 690-760
This range mirrors the volatility and increases seen from September to November 2025. PNPs continue to be the most powerful pathway for candidates with low core CRS scores, given that provincial nomination itself adds 600 points to any profile.
Healthcare and Social Services
Healthcare remains one of the most consistent category-based selections, reappearing every few weeks throughout 2025.
Predicted ITAs: 1,500-3,500 per draw
Predicted CRS Range: 455-480
Healthcare demand persists across Canada, making this category highly reliable. Scores largely depend on whether IRCC leans toward mid-sized or larger rounds. However, healthcare allocations for 2025 were nearly maxed out with 7,500 of 8,000 planned ITAs already issued by late 2025.
Trade Occupations
IRCC held only one trade draw in September 2025, making repeat draws in early 2026 possible but not guaranteed.
Predicted ITAs: 1,000-1,500 per draw
Predicted CRS Range: 495-515
Trade cutoffs tend to sit around the 500 mark based on the single 2025 draw. Trades occupations had 3,300 ITAs remaining from planned allocations by late 2025, making them one of the strongest remaining opportunities heading into 2026.
Education
Education was added as a new category in 2025 and is expected to continue into 2026.
Predicted ITAs: 1,000-2,000 remaining
Predicted CRS Range: 455-470
Following September 2025's draw with a CRS of 462, results should remain steady if this category returns. Education had 2,000 of 3,000 planned ITAs remaining by late 2025, making it a strong contender for early 2026 draws.
New Categories Coming in 2026
IRCC is introducing a new Transport category for category-based draws beginning in early 2026. Candidates eligible under this category include those working in transportation occupations identified as economic priorities. The Canadian government is also considering additional categories including senior managers, researchers and scientists, and military personnel, though these remain under public consultation.
Candidates who believe they may be eligible under the new Transport category can create or update their Express Entry profiles now, as draws under this category will begin in early 2026. As with all other categories, candidates must meet all requirements in the instructions for that round and be eligible for at least one of Express Entry's three programs.
Major Changes to Express Entry in 2026
TOEFL Essentials Acceptance
TOEFL Essentials will be accepted for economic immigration alongside IELTS and CELPIP for Express Entry profiles from 2026 onward. This test is shorter (approximately 1.5 hours), adaptive, and includes a virtual interview component. There is potential for "score inflation" inside the pool, which may push CRS cutoffs higher as more candidates achieve competitive language scores.
Continued Category-Based Focus
Canada is shifting to a stabilization model with less volume, more control, and more precision in candidate selection. Category-based draws will remain the dominant selection method, targeting specific occupations based on identified economic goals. Priority categories for 2026 include French-language proficiency, healthcare and social services, agriculture and agri-food occupations, STEM, trades occupations, education, and the new transport category.
How CRS Cutoffs Are Determined
CRS cutoffs are shaped by three primary factors: the number of invitations issued, the specific category selected, and the number of competitive candidates in the pool. For example, the most recent French draw dropped to a CRS of 408 because of its large size of over 6,000 ITAs. In contrast, CEC cutoffs held between 531 and 533 because draws issued only 1,000 ITAs.
These differences reflect how invitation volume directly influences score outcomes. When IRCC issues more invitations, they must dip deeper into the pool, lowering the cutoff score. When draws are smaller and more selective, cutoffs remain elevated as only the highest-scoring candidates receive ITAs.
Strategies to Increase Your CRS Score in 2026
Improve Language Test Scores
Language scores provide the biggest CRS jump, with retaking IELTS or CELPIP to target CLB 9 or CLB 10 being the fastest boost available. Just moving from CLB 8 to CLB 9 can add up to 50 points. Focus on test-taking strategies and consider the new TOEFL Essentials option launching in 2026.
Obtain a Provincial Nomination
A provincial nomination adds 600 points to your CRS score, making it the single most powerful strategy. Prioritize provinces with programs targeting healthcare, IT and tech, trades, education, and transport and logistics occupations. If Express Entry alone isn't working, pursuing a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) pathway is your strongest move.
Education Upgrades and ECA Optimization
Many candidates lose points without realizing it in the education category. Consider adding a second credential (diploma plus degree), getting your spouse's education assessed, or re-evaluating Educational Credential Assessments (ECAs) if you studied outside Canada. Even small changes here can unlock 10-30 extra points.
Use Spouse Points Strategically
Maximize points when applying as a couple by having both partners complete language tests and ECAs. In some cases, switching who is the principal applicant can result in a higher overall CRS score depending on individual qualifications.
Gain Canadian Work Experience
Canadian work experience provides significant CRS points and makes candidates eligible for Canadian Experience Class draws with their consistently higher CRS cutoffs. Even one year of skilled Canadian work experience can meaningfully improve your score and open additional pathways.
Express Entry Pool Distribution Analysis
The Express Entry pool as of late 2025 shows clear concentration patterns that predict 2026 competitiveness.
CRS Score RangeNumber of CandidatesPercentage of Pool601-1,200696Super competitive tier501-60024,531Highly competitive491-50012,255Competitive for trades481-49012,473Competitive for healthcare471-48015,150Target for category draws451-47031,160Largest concentration431-44016,3546.52% of total pool
The 451-470 range contains over 31,000 candidates, making category-based draws essential for most candidates in this tier. The significant drop in the 451-480 score range from August to September 2025 (over 1,885 candidates) reflects successful ITA selections targeting these mid-tier scores through category-based draws.
Key Takeaways for 2026 Success
Focus your strategy on category-based draws rather than waiting for general draws, as IRCC has clearly prioritized targeted selection. French language proficiency remains the most accessible pathway for candidates with lower CRS scores, consistently featuring cutoffs below 420. Trade and education categories still hold over 5,000 combined invitations remaining from 2025 allocations, making them strong opportunities for early 2026.
Provincial nomination continues to be the most powerful CRS boost at 600 points, effectively guaranteeing an ITA in the next PNP draw. Language score improvements from CLB 8 to CLB 9 can add up to 50 points, making test preparation one of the highest-return time investments you can make.
Stay informed about IRCC's category announcements and adapt your profile to match priority occupations. With Express Entry shifting to a stabilization model emphasizing quality over quantity, strategic positioning within target categories will determine success in 2026.
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